Welcome
Real Canadian Politics is our political blog, where we talk about recent happenings in the political world.
Cole also has a personal blog.
Cole also has a personal blog.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Dear Afghanistan, we're not going anywhere yet!
Canadian troops will no longer be used in active combat roles after 2011, rather the 950 troops will take on a strict training only role in the relatively safe city of Kabul. The Conservatives promise that not only will our troops not be used in combat, but they will only be training on safe bases, and will not be used in the dangerous Kandahar region.
Despite criticizing the Government for taking too long to outline their plan, the Liberals are generally happy with the decision. The plan takes into account many of the recommendations that the Liberals put forward, including the central idea that Canadian troops should remain in the country post the 2011 withdrawal date. The NDP however are not happy with the decision, and are asking the Conservatives to put the mission to a vote in the House. The Conservatives have retaliated saying that it is well within their authority to conduct training missions, and are pointing at the Haiti earthquake disaster for precedent. At the time, the Government sent troops to the Caribbean nation without a vote in the House.
I have to agree with the Conservatives and the Liberals in this matter: We can't leave the Afghan people this way. The Taliban Government has been toppled, but leaving the untrained Afghan military to keep them at bay won't work at all. The least we can do on our way out is to give them the training they need to keep their citizens safe, while they work to rebuild their nation.
We have been their for 9 years, and that is a long time. Over 150 Canadian soldiers have died, and that is far too many. The war is costing us over $1 billion per year, and that is far too much. But if we leave now, without training our replacements, will it all have been for nothing? I would hate to think that so many people have lost their lives for nothing.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Census vote!
At this point it is very likely that the motion will pass, however it is important to note that the motion is not binding. Because the census falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal government, it is not up to the House to control the census. All MPs can do is ask the Government, on behalf of the Canadian people, to reinstate the census. Harper's response: no. It is highly unlikely that the government will change their mind.
I was considering live blogging the vote, but I don't think it is really necessary since it is just a vote, and we essentially know which way everyone will vote.
As a side note, I will be live blogging David Johnston's swearing in ceremony on Friday, so check back then!
More information:
- Liberals move to reinstate long-form census (cbc.ca)
- Tories haul out 'coalition' label in census spat with opposition (theglobeandmail.com)
- Ontario, Quebec want long-form census reinstated 'as soon as possible' (theglobeandmail.com)
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Putting the registry in perspective
Simms was one of the eight Liberal MPs that voted in favour of scrapping the registry at second reading, but he has now told his colleagues that he has changed his mind, not only because Ignatieff ordered him too, but for his own personal reasons too.
Simms father, Reginald Simms, took his own life with a long gun in June of this year, prompting his son to change his vote, stating that even if the registry saves only one life, it will be worth it.
Simms has more than his father to think, he also stated that after the second reading he looked up into the gallery and saw a woman crying. He mouthed the words, "I'm sorry" to her, and now he plans to make good on his "mistake." It is believed that the woman in the gallery was Suzanne Laplante-Edwards, the mother of a girl killed in the L'Ecole Polytechnique massacre. It is unclear whether she will be in the gallery tonight.
Simms wasn't the only MP to change his mind for this reason. Liberal MP Michelle Simpson tweeted that a "Newfoundland colleague" put the registry in "unprecedented perspective."
With all Liberal MPs voting to save the registry, the Bloc voting to save the registry, and the NDP stating that they have "enough" MPs to save the registry, it looks like the Conservatives will lose the vote, and the registry will stand to live another parliamentary session.
More at the Toronto Star.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
More Sports Talk in Quebec Politics
The aforementioned article points to the PMO and its comments towards Bloc Quebecois leader (provincially) Pauline Marois. The latter mentioned that she would like to see the Montreal Canadiens incorporate more Francophone players into their lineup. To which the Prime Minister responded that even though the team is one that unites almost all Quebecors it really should stay out of the political light and simply be left alone.
This story comes on the heels of a debate (which is still ongoing but has simmered for now) of federal funding for a new arena in Quebec City, which has been speculated to be built in an effort to attract an NHL team. Instantly a revive the Nordiques campaign started in not only the streets but in the political offices as well, as many MPs gathered and had photos taken wearing the vintage sweater.
While it is true that hockey is Canada's national pastime and regarded as a sacred institution in not only Quebec but across the nation, but where should the line be drawn between sports and politics. It seems one side already has drawn the line far away but the other just will not stay on its own side. Montreal Canadiens owner Geoff Molson stated following the most current incident, "We are in the hockey business and not into politics [...] I can tell you that we don't talk about politics in the dressing room."
So while Marious comments to the media stating the Habs are, "a symbol of our pride to succeed in this sports, and I think that Quebecors would like to have more Francophones in this team." most people including Harper, don't think that is the case, or like Geoff Molson, don't care. The result is a lot of people changing the channel on their television and switching pages in their newspaper to the sports section, where the real news and commentary about sports remains. Thus, leaving the politicians to once again return to what they are suppose to care about; that is running this country and/or its provinces and territories.
Tories take lead, or statistical anomaly?
Normally, the statistics would suggest that the Conservative have a minor lead of 3-4%. However, if we take a look at the data from the past few weeks, we see that the data could be telling a different story.
The data from September 2 suggests that the Conservatives have 29.4% of the vote, while the Liberals have 29.1% of the vote. Even without the margin of error, the two parties were in a virtual tie.
The data from August 19 suggests that the Conservatives would win 32.5% of the vote, while the Liberals would win 27.9% of the vote. The 5% tory lead is barely statistically significant, and should thus be noted as relatively close to that of a tie.
Now, if we take a look at this weeks data, we see that there is perhaps another possibility. Because the difference is within the margin of error, it is fairly difficult for us to be sure that the Conservatives are in the lead. Perhaps they are, or perhaps the parties are still in a tie. The data speaks differently to each party, and is much too close to state that the Conservatives are gaining ground again.
Chart from CBC.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Standing in the way of the Firearms Registry
The Firearms Registry was established in 1996 after the Chretien government passed bill C-68 in 1995. It requires all citizens owning a gun to purchase a license which costs $60-$80, and is renewable every 5 years on the holders birthday. It was created to make all guns traceable, thus reducing gun related crime.
While it is known that many crimes are committed with unregistered firearms, many crimes are committed with registered firearms. How many criminals have been put behind bars because of this program? How many lives have been saved?
The program cost taxpayers between $1.1-$3.6 million every year to operate, which in terms of savings lives is a small price to pay. Even if the system only saves a handful of lives, isn't it worth it? Can we really put a price on life?
Now, the Conservatives want to scrap the registry because they say it cost too much for what it does. It saves lives. $3.6 million is too much money for saving lives? Bill C-391 (the bill to scrap it) has passed second reading in the house and will proceed to third reading (which is the last vote) this fall. Conservative MPs will almost certainly vote in favour of it, while the Liberals will vote against it. In the previous votes, 8 Liberals voted in favour, however this time around Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has declared it a "whipped" vote which means that all Liberal MPs are required to vote with the party or face penalties.
With the Liberals voting against the bill, it all comes down to the 12 New Democrat MPs that voted in favour of it. The official NDP stance is against the bill, but Leader Jack Layton has yet to declare it a whipped vote which means MPs can vote however they want.
The NDP really does hold the fate of the Firearms Registry, and hopefully with the RCMP's recent announcement, they will vote against the bill.
The RCMP announced that they have completed a 40 page report showing that the "program is cost effective, efficient and an important tool for law enforcement." However, the report which was turned over to the government in February has not been publicly released yet. The Liberals are accusing the Conservatives of purposely withholding the report until after the vote to cover up the facts, and "The Liberal Party is demanding that the Harper government stop trying to cover up key facts in the gun registry debate and release an RCMP report that tells Canadians about its importance to public safety" in a statement released by the party.
Liberal Public Safety critic Mark Holland has submitted a letter to the Speaker of The House of Commons asking him to intervene and force the government to release the report.
And this isn't the first time that the Conservatives have seemingly withheld crucial information about the registry. After the second reading of the bill last November it was discovered that the government was in possession of a report that showed that police agencies accessed the registry an average of 10,818 time per day.
The RCMP isn't the only organisation standing in favour of the registry, the Canadian Association of Police Chiefs also believes that the registry is useful and important.
The program obviously saves lives, and if police forces are saying that they use this regularly than why would we get rid of it. This RCMP report needs to be released so that Canadians and MPs can see just how effective the program is. Hopefully with the release of this report, New Democrat MPs will vote against Bill C-391 even if they aren't "whipped" to do so.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Liberal Express goes bus-less
In other news, Liberal MP Bob Rae is holding a press conference in Ottawa to discuss the census and the recently released census documents. Ah, the census documents (and more of them here). They clearly show that StatsCan issued tons of warnings to the Government regarding why they shouldn't scrap the long form census. From the documents I have read, Tony Clement's assertion that StatsCan approved the scrapping of the long form has absolutely no truth to it. There is quite a bit of information to read over in these documents, and I haven't had time to read them all yet, but I am sure that there is more startling (or lack there of) revelations buried in them.
Following Bob Rae's statement, NDP Leader Jack Layton takes the stage to discuss aid to the areas in Saskatchewan affected by the recent flooding, but there is a good chance that the reporters will push the questions into the census direction.
And the Prime minister is out of service today; that is, he has no public engagements planned. He will be in Barrie tomorrow to help at a hockey tournament.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Public safety committee: we're back!
It is unclear how the opposition parties will react, although I expect they will cooperate; after all this is a situation that has outraged most Canadians. However, an early attempt by the opposition parties (in this same committee) to initiate a public inquiry into G8/G20 security was foiled after Conservative members successfully wasted enough time to run down the clock, thus resulting in the vote never happening. If the opposition wanted to play partisan games, they certainly could attempt to give the Conservatives a taste of their own medicine, although I do believe that they will act in the best interests of Canadians by allowing an investigation into airport security.
In other news, Ignatieffs Quebec adviser, Jean-Marc Fournier, has returned to provincial politics, thus vacating his position in the Federal party. Both Ignatieff and Fournier expressed sadness by the decision, but Ignatieff has said that he will continue to call Fournier for advice in the province.
As far as the leaders go, the NDP are trying to "pull a liberal," as leader Jack Layton heads to lunch at a local Tim Hortons, BQ Leader Gille Duceppe is being interviewed about his 20 years in politics, Ignatieff is continuing on the Liberal Express as he prepares to head to Iqualuit, and Harper is finally visible again as he tours around some events in BC.
Friday, August 6, 2010
PM completes minor cabinet shuffle
I understand why Harper would promote Strahl to Transport, as he has done a relatively good job by this Government's standards. And I fully understand why Harper would appoint Duncan as Minister, as he is already familiar with the portfolio, and he is riding in BC should help with the poll numbers.
What I personally can't understand is why John Baird has been promoted to Government House Leader. From my experience, watching Baird during Question Period and in committee meetings, he is one of the most stubborn, uncooperative, and downright trouble causing Conservatives I have ever seen. I can't comment on how he is off camera as I have never seen him there, but on camera he seems to be the last person I would choose for House Leader. The only thing he has going for him is that he is pretty knowledgeable with parliamentary procedure, despite choosing to ignore it at times.
With the exception of Baird as House Leader, it was a pretty boring cabinet shuffle, and as such I think it will have very little effect on the polls.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Harper and Ignatieff virtually tied!
Still, lots of work for the Liberals to do. They are ahead of the Conservatives in just two regions; Atlantic and Quebec (although still behind the BQ in Quebec of course). They are virtually tied with the Conservative in Ontario, and have a lot of catching up to do elsewhere in the country.
What caused this change in voter intentions? Was it the census debate? The recent news about the Guergis scandal? The Liberal Express? One can only speculate on the possible cause, but one thing seems certain; the Liberals aren't done yet!
Still, this could be a faulty sample as we have seen in the past. No poll is completely accurate, and this one is no different. If the Liberals can maintain a tie or pull ahead in the next couple polls then we will know for sure that the Liberals are back.
In other political news, Liberal MP Mark Holland is holding a press conference later today, and President of the Treasury Board, Stockwell Day is also holding a press conference. Hopefully for him, this one goes better than his last one on "unreported crime."
The Conservatives are having their national caucus meeting today as well, although I don't expect we will hear much from the PMO about it.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Welcome back Helena Guergis?
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Jay Hill finished?
Monday, July 19, 2010
The force is weak with these ones
That last line a clear poke at the intelligence of not just Soudas, but the entire PMO, and seemingly Conservative party. Odd that the NDP are the only ones to have responded, although I suppose the NDP are often the first to respond to the Conservatives. Hard to tell if the Liberals will take the bait and go after the Cons for it, but so far nothing from them.REALITY CHECK: Dimitri Soudas uses the Jedi defence
Dimitri Soudas created an instant internet classic with his line of defence on eliminating the Census long form:
"21,000 Canadians registered Jedi knight as a religion in the 2001 census.
Religion is asked every 10 years. We made the 40-page long form voluntary because government should not threaten prosecution or jail time to force Canadians to divulge unnecessary private and personal information. Canadians don't want the government at their doorstep at 10 o'clock at night while they may be doing something in their bedroom, like reading, because government wants to know how many bedrooms they have."What do 21,000 Jedis have to do with the Long Form Census? Nothing. What does the long form census have to do with government officials showing up at 10 o'clock at night at Canadians' doors? Nothing. What does bedtime reading have to do with an accurate statistical portrait of our country's demographics? Nothing.
But there you have it: the spokesperson for the Prime Minister of Canada talking about Jedis.
The force is weak with these ones.
Its possible we won't hear from them for a few days as Ignatieff takes a much needed rest. The Liberal Express sits idle until Wednesday, when they start Quebec. Good luck.
Jedi Knights in Canada?
About 21,000 of them to be exact, according to PMO Director of Communication Dimitri Soudas. In an effort to promote the conservative plan to scrap the long form census, PMO has released the following statement:
----------------------------------------------
21,000 Canadians registered Jedi knight as a religion in the 2001 census.
Religion is asked every 10 years.
We made the 40-page long form voluntary because government should not threaten prosecution or jail time to force Canadians to divulge unnecessary private and personal information.
Canadians don't want the government at their doorstep at 10 o'clock at night while they may be doing something in their bedroom, like reading, because government wants to know how many bedrooms they have.
The Ignatieff Liberals promise to force all Canadians to answer personal and intrusive questions about their private lives under threat of jail, fine, or both.
Dimitri N. Soudas
Director/Directeur
Communications
PMO-CPM
(613) 992-xxxx
----------------------------------------------
Sure, the threat of jail or fines seems a little extreme, but this is the kind of data that guides social policy for years to come. Without a little incentive people are clearly not going to complete a 40 page census. How do the Conservatives plan to govern the country, if they don’t know what the people need or want? Oh wait, conservative political ideology should cover that, right?
Saturday, July 17, 2010
A real leader
Friday, July 16, 2010
Ignatieff calls for CSIS head to resign
Fadden revealed that foreign influence over Canadian politicians was a major issue, and that CSIS was currently investigating several provincial cabinet members over the issue. While not expressly saying it, Fadden implied that agents of the Chinese government were among the culprits attempting to influence Canadian policymakers. Fadden also accused a French national, who was recently held hostage in Mali, of being a spy for the French government.
The previous Liberal stance was that while his statements were inappropriate, they were no cause for dismissal. Well that opinion changed last night when Ignatieff called for Fadden's resignation over the statements. Some experts are accusing Ignatieff of attempting to buy votes from Chinese Canadians.
In my opinion, while the timing and location of Ignatieff's statement is extremely convenient, there is nothing wrong the Liberal stance. They are not the only party that is calling for Fadden's resignation, and they are not the only party to use strategic locations to make announcements. Just a few days ago the Conservative Government announced the $2.6 billion contract to build 2-3 new navy supply ships in Halifax, Nova Scotia. It is of course widely known that Halifax is a military city.
When opportunity presents itself, take advantage of it. All is fair in love and war, and campaigns are, of course, war.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Ignatieff on his way back to academia?
Some reports are suggesting that Michael Ignatieff has been offered a prestigious job in academia, should he want to leave the political world. According to the Globe and Mail, he has been offered the top position in the University of Toronto’s Global Affairs School. The Conservative, and maybe even the NDP, are sure to latch on to this and attack mercilessly, but so far no statement from the Liberals. This would be a good time for Ignatieff to reaffirm him commitment to acquiring 24 Sussex Drive, by issuing a public statement turning down the offer. Time will tell what he does, however is think it is fair to say that should he ever take UoT up on their offer, the Liberals will lose almost all credibility.
On the Hill today, Public Works and Status for Women Minister Rona Ambrose will be making a statement on behalf of the Government regarding the “honour killings” in Montreal. This will be interesting because we will finally get some clarity on whether the Governments wants an amendment to the Criminal Code for honour killings, or whether they will back-track and remind us that murder is murder, no matter the victim.
Liberal industry critic Marc Garneau is also holding a press conference on the Hill this morning, likely about the Government’s announcement tomorrow that it will sole-source the $9 billion purchase of 65 fighter jets from the US. That $9 billion price tag will climb to $16 billion when 20 years of maintenance and support are factored in.
And the Liberal Express is onward rolling. No more bus troubles for them, after getting it fixed at a garage name Harper’s Diesel. Ironic? I think so.