Tories take lead, or statistical anomaly?

The latest EKOS poll, released to the CBC, show that the Conservatives are holding a 32.4% lead, with the Liberals at 28.9%. The NDP are holding 16.6% support, while the Green Party maintains 10.7% and the Bloc are at 8.9%.

Normally, the statistics would suggest that the Conservative have a minor lead of 3-4%. However, if we take a look at the data from the past few weeks, we see that the data could be telling a different story.

The data from September 2 suggests that the Conservatives have 29.4% of the vote, while the Liberals have 29.1% of the vote. Even without the margin of error, the two parties were in a virtual tie.

The data from August 19 suggests that the Conservatives would win 32.5% of the vote, while the Liberals would win 27.9% of the vote. The 5% tory lead is barely statistically significant, and should thus be noted as relatively close to that of a tie.

Now, if we take a look at this weeks data, we see that there is perhaps another possibility. Because the difference is within the margin of error, it is fairly difficult for us to be sure that the Conservatives are in the lead. Perhaps they are, or perhaps the parties are still in a tie. The data speaks differently to each party, and is much too close to state that the Conservatives are gaining ground again.

Chart from CBC.

Harper and Ignatieff virtually tied!

Well, not exactly, but their respective parties are! This is good news for the Liberals, who until this week, have consistently ranked lower than the ruling Conservative party this summer.

Still, lots of work for the Liberals to do. They are ahead of the Conservatives in just two regions; Atlantic and Quebec (although still behind the BQ in Quebec of course). They are virtually tied with the Conservative in Ontario, and have a lot of catching up to do elsewhere in the country.

What caused this change in voter intentions? Was it the census debate? The recent news about the Guergis scandal? The Liberal Express? One can only speculate on the possible cause, but one thing seems certain; the Liberals aren't done yet!

Still, this could be a faulty sample as we have seen in the past. No poll is completely accurate, and this one is no different. If the Liberals can maintain a tie or pull ahead in the next couple polls then we will know for sure that the Liberals are back.

In other political news, Liberal MP Mark Holland is holding a press conference later today, and President of the Treasury Board, Stockwell Day is also holding a press conference. Hopefully for him, this one goes better than his last one on "unreported crime."

The Conservatives are having their national caucus meeting today as well, although I don't expect we will hear much from the PMO about it.